As the general election battle shapes up in Orygun (we're sensitive about that pronounciation), I thought I might offer a brief look at the state's proud history of bucking national trends, and how this might shape the results in November.

Lets get wonky below the fold.   
  
The state motto here is "She flies with her own wings." That has certainly been true for quite some time here, as Oregon has a number of features either totally or almost totally unique among the 50 states. I've listed and categorized as many of them as I could think of below.

Liberal:

Death with Dignity - the state's voters voted in favor of this unique law twice in the 1990s, and the Supreme Court recently upheld it.

Abortion - Almost no restrictions whatsoever.

Conservation/land-use planning - Containing the sprawl around Portland with an urban growth boundary and ensuring a pristine environment with measures like a law banning private ownership of Oregon beaches and a first-in-the-nation bottle refund bill.

Medical marijuana - 'Nuff said.

Gay rights - Oregon voted down various harsh anti-gay measures throughout the 90s, voted for a gay marriage ban by a smaller margin than any other state by several points, and would have passed a civil union law were it not for the House GOP leadership pulling out all the stops.

Metro - A one-of-a-kind tri-county government that works in tandem with city and county governments in the Portland area.

Most unchurched state in the union

Conservative:

Property Rights - Individual landowners can get relief from the state's land-use code to maintain the value of their property.

No Sales Tax - makes for a heck of a tourist trade from neighboring states.

Constitutionally capped property taxes - Passed by initiative

"The kicker" - One-of-a-kind law requiring that any state revenue above projections made by the state economist be returned to the businesses and individuals who paid it.

Neither:

No self-serve gas - Intuitively, you would think it would raise gas prices, but the evidence is inconclusive. I only have 4 or 5 college-level economics courses, so maybe someone smarter than me in this area can explain why this might or might not impact the price of gas.

Heavy reliance on the initiative process - Only California debates and passes more laws by initiative.

You may notice a pattern here. On social and environmental issues, Oregon's iconoclasm runs well to the left of the national center, whereas on economic and property issues, Oregon's iconoclasm runs well to the right.

The politicians here are products of this environment, which explains why the Oregon GOP has a long and storied history of social liberalism that doesn't always fit with the national party. Former Governor and Senator Mark Hatfield opposed the war in Vietnam, and former Governor Tom McCall introduced the bottle bill and flew in personally on his helicopter to stop a resort owner from taking private land on the beach. Their legacy lives on with recent Secretary of State Norma Paulus, former Labor Commissioner and current Supreme Court candidate Jack Roberts, University of Oregon president and failed gubernatorial nominee Dave Frohnmayer. Sen. Gordon Smith (currently the only elected statewide GOP official, and a notorious "squish" on the environment and health care), and, maybe, pro-choice gubernatorial candidate Ron Saxton. All of this while being reliably fiscally conservative - seemingly in line with the ideological preferences of a plurality of Oregonians, and especially in line with the preferences of suburban Washington County independent voters who tip elections (the topic of another diary on another day).

The problem? Many Republicans of late, swayed by a slim majority of their primary voters and powerful national interests, have been afraid to embrace their tradition of social liberalism, mostly opting to ignore it and hope they can avoid social issues in the general election.

So, why doesn't this win against Democrats whose "progressive" and union backers mirror the national party and rarely reflect Oregonian iconoclasm on fiscal issues? Well, there's a sizable enough wing of the Oregon GOP that votes like the national GOP. These party-liners excoriate any Republican who highlights his iconoclasm instead of toeing the party line on social issues. Republicans respond to this pressure by stubbornly sticking right socially, taking the focus away from the tax issues where Republicans clearly represent the views of the majority.

This also leaves an opening just big enough for the Libertarian Party to steal otherwise Republican votes, and there is little doubt that the libertarians stole the 2002 gubernatorial election from a socially conservative Kevin Mannix and handed it to the Democrats.

So what does this mean for '06? Ballot measures proposing a Colorado-style state spending cap and and restrictions on eminent domain are likely to be winners, and Republicans would do well to highlight their disagreements with Democrats on these issues.

A ballot measure proposing parental notification for abortions is likely to fail. This isn't all bad for social conservatives - after all, pro-choice urbanites already vote in droves, and it may increase turnout among pro-life conservatives even as it loses. However, state Republican candidates ought to leave it alone, as supporting it can only hurt their standing with the electorate at large, no matter how much good it does them in the primary. Running as a social conservative has not worked here in memory, and there's no reason to believe it will start to work now.

It is in vogue for Democrats to claim that heartland voters neglect their economic self-interest and vote on social issues. I don't buy this, but it holds oddly true in the case of the Oregon GOP, who can't seem to neutralize Democratic strength on social issues and overwhelm Democrats on pocketbook issues. I contend that all it would take for Republicans is a forceful return to their iconoclastic heritage. Someone should tell Ron Saxton before it's too late.

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